Oscar predictions

Source: oscars.org

Happy Friday! I'm forgoing my usual High Five post this week, as I'm (hopefully) sitting on the beach, unaware of what day it is. :) But since the Oscars are rapidly approaching (they air on Sunday at 7 p.m. EST) and I'm a big movie-goer, I thought I'd offer you my predictions (who I think will win) and my preferences (who I think SHOULD win). I cut out categories I know nothing about (sound mixing, etc.) and categories where I'm not familiar with the nominees (best foreign film, best animated short, etc.), because one can only sound authoritative while spewing BS for so long.

Best Picture
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street

Should win: Her. I loved everything about this movie. It was awkward and charming, I thought the styling was terrific (using subtle changes to depict a not-so-distant future). It also really got me thinking about companionship and loneliness.

Will win: 12 Years a Slave. Which was great, just not the type of film I really love.

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Christian Bale (American Hustle)
Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)

Should win: Matthew McConaughey. I haven't seen Nebraska, but I thought the rest of the nominees all did well. But McConaughey's performance really surprised me (after seeing him primarily in rom-coms and Dazed and Confused): his performance was suprisingly deep, and he disappeared into the role. I didn't think of him playing the bongos naked or saying "all right, all right, all right" even once.
Will win: Ol' Matty might pull this one out. Or Leo might finally get his Oscar.

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Amy Adams (American Hustle)
Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
Judi Dench (Philomena)
Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)

Should win: Sandra Bullock. The fact that she was literally the only person on screen for most of the movie (and I didn't fall asleep) says something. Judi Dench was also great, and totally disappeared into that role (I tend to think of her as more of a bad-ass, silver-haired dame, personally). Meryl Streep gave a great performance, but her character was so unlikable, I don't want to give her my vote, lol.

Will win: Cate Blanchett. I haven't seen Blue Jasmine, but she's won a lot of the lead-up awards.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)
Bradley Cooper (American Hustle)
Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)
Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)

Should win: Jared Leto. He killed it as the transgender Rayon. I don't even have the words.

Will win: Jared Leto.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine)
Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave)
Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)
June Squibb (Nebraska)

Should win: Unpopular opnion: I like Julia Roberts for this. Her yelling "Eat the fish, fucker!" at Meryl Streep was pretty priceless. And I thought it was a great portrayal of how complicated parent-child relationships can be. Or Lupita. I'm a big J. Law fan, but this role wasn't my favorite for her.

Will win: J. Law or Lupita.

Best Animated Feature
The Croods (Chris Sanders, Kirk DeMicco, Kristine Belson)
Despicable Me 2 (Chris Renaud, Pierre Coffin, Chris Meledandri)
Ernest & Celestine (Benjamin Renner, Didier Brunner)
Frozen (Chris Buck, Jennifer Lee, Peter Del Vecho)
The Wind Rises (Hayao Miyazaki, Toshio Suzuki)

Should win: I haven't seen Ernest & Celestine or The Wind Rises, but I really liked both Frozen and The Croods. The Croods has the edge for me, because I thought it was a little more original. And I liked its message about taking chances and living life.

Will win: No clue. Maybe Frozen, as it seems to be pretty acclaimed.

Best Director
David O. Russell (American Hustle)
Alfonso Cuarón (Gravity)
Alexander Payne (Nebraska)
Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)
Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street)

Should win: Imma give this one to Cuarón. He managed to make getting lost in space interesting to me, and that's commendable. Plus, I love all of his other movies (how's that for logic?)  

Will win: Cuarón. Or maybe Steve McQueen, because he has a cool name.

Best Original Song
"Happy" (Despicable Me 2)
"Let It Go" (Frozen)
"The Moon Song" (Her)
"Ordinary Love" (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)

Should win: While "The Moon Song" was pretty damn adorable, I'm going with "Let it Go." I had that song stuck in my head for a week after I saw the movie, and I'm not mad about it. But let's be clear: Idina Menzel sings it best, I have no idea why they had Demi Lovato sing it over the credits.

Will win: Frozen has this locked up.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Before Midnight (Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke)
Captain Phillips (Billy Ray)
Philomena (Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope)
12 Years a Slave (John Ridley)
The Wolf of Wall Street (Terence Winter)

Should win: Before Midnight. I thought this was a really fresh take on a long-term relationship. Jesse and Celine don't hate each other, but they're not exactly in love, either. Good stuff.

Will win: 12 Years a Slave is a front-runner.

Best Original Screenplay
American Hustle (Eric Warren Singer, David O. Russell)
Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen)
Dallas Buyers Club (Craig Borten, Melisa Wallack)
Her (Spike Jonze)
Nebraska (Bob Nelson)

Should win: Her. So creative. I love it.

Will win: Her could take it, although people are predicting it will go to American Hustle, since it likely won't win many other awards.

Will you watch the Oscars on Sunday? With Ellen as host, it's sure to be entertaining. We at least know they'll be a dance number ...